Table of Contents
- What is Closing Line Value? (Sports Betting)
- What is Closing Line Value (CLV)?
- How is Closing Line Value Calculated?
- Formula
- Example
- Why is Closing Line Value so Important?
- The Closing Line is the Most Efficient Line
- Measuring Your Edge Fast
- Which Closing Line Should You Use?
- Pinnacle’s Closing Line
- Essential Step: De-Vigging the Closing Line
- How to Track Closing Line Value
- Best Bet Trackers for CLV Tracking
- FAQ
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What is Closing Line Value? (Sports Betting)
What is Closing Line Value (CLV)?
Closing Line Value (CLV) in sports betting is a measure of whether you consistently beat the market. It’s one of the best indicators of long-term betting skill.
More specifically, CLV compares the odds you took when you placed your bet to the closing odds - the final odds available just before a game begins, usually at a sharp sportsbook like Pinnacle. These closing odds are widely considered the most efficient and accurate reflection of a game’s true probabilities because they incorporate the most information, including sharp money, injuries, lineup changes, and market sentiment.
How is Closing Line Value Calculated?
Formula
For American odds you will need to convert all odds to decimal before calculating CLV
Here’s how to convert American odds to decimal odds:
➕ For positive odds (e.g. +150):
Decimal Odds = (American Odds / 100) + 1
Example:
Decimal Odds = (150 / 100) + 1 = 2.50
➖ For negative odds (e.g. -120):
Decimal Odds = (100 / American Odds) + 1
Example:
Decimal Odds = (100 / 120) + 1 = 1.8333
Don’t want to do this yourself? Use this automatic odds converter.
The most common formula for CLV is:
CLV % = (Closing Odds / Bet Odds) - 1
Expressed as a percentage, it shows how much better or worse your odds are compared to the closing line.
Example
You bet at 2.20 → Implied probability = 45.5%
Closing odds = 2.00 → Implied probability = 50%
CLV % = 45.5% - 50% = -4.5%
- A negative CLV means the market moved against you.
- A positive CLV means you beat the market.
Why is Closing Line Value so Important?
The Closing Line is the Most Efficient Line
The closing line is far from random. It is a refined product that has been crafted throughout the pre-match build-up by thousands of data points, including fundamental data points like position match-ups but also the line will have been shaped a lot by money flows from bettors (sharp money will shape the line more per dollar than soft money).
Not only does the closing line have the advantage of having more data points to factor in it also has the advantage that certain predicitions baked into the line become more reliable as the event approaches for example the meteorological (weather) reports are more accurate the more near term they are. This meteorological example makes it far easier to set an efficient line when weather conditions have a significant impact on the probabilities like in Baseball.
Because the closing line is the sharpest pre-match line available it naturally has become the widely accepted expected value yardstick for both professional and amateur +EV bettors.
Measuring Your Edge Fast
One of the most compelling reasons CLV is so important is that it allows bettors to measure their edge much faster than relying on profit and loss alone. As betting expert Joseph Buchdahl explains, profits and losses are inherently noisy - especially in even-money markets, where individual bet outcomes are binary (+1 or -1) and affected heavily by short-term variance. You can be a +EV bettor and still show a negative return over hundreds of bets purely due to luck. In contrast, CLV changes in small, continuous increments, making it much easier to detect a consistent signal over a relatively small sample size.
According to Buchdahl, while it might take several thousand bets to statistically prove a profit signal using results alone, a bettor beating the closing line with a consistent edge (e.g. 5%) might only need 50 bets to demonstrate significance. That makes CLV an invaluable tool for validating models and strategies early on. If you’re showing sustained positive CLV, you’re likely placing +EV bets, even if the results haven’t caught up yet. Conversely, if CLV starts to vanish, it’s an early sign that your edge may be eroding.
Buchdahl's analysis shows that tracking CLV is not just a theoretical exercise. It's a practical, evidence-based approach to identifying true betting edge long before profit numbers become statistically trustworthy.
Which Closing Line Should You Use?
There are thousands of sportsbooks and betting exchanges around the world, which means there’s no shortage of closing lines to choose from. But not all closing lines are created equal. What you want is the sharpest, most efficient line - the one that best reflects the true probability of an outcome after accounting for all available information and betting activity. On average, that line comes from Pinnacle Sportsbook. Thanks to its high limits, low margins, and willingness to accept sharp bettors, Pinnacle’s closing odds are widely regarded as the most accurate in the industry. That’s why both professional bettors and services like Pinnacle Odds Dropper rely on Pinnacle as their benchmark for CLV.
Pinnacle’s Closing Line
Pinnacle Sportsbook’s closing line is the most respected closing line in the world. It is widely considered the most efficient on average which means it is the best closing line to use when calculating CLV.
Pinnacle have a unique business model which makes their lines, including their closing line sharper (more efficient) than other sportsbooks. Pinnacle operate a winner’s welcome policy which means it doesn’t kick out winning players. This allows it to use the betting activity from sharp bettors to price its lines which is a big advantage over other sportsbooks who kick out winners leaving them without sharp money to help price lines.
Essential Step: De-Vigging the Closing Line
To calculate CLV accurately, you first need to remove the sportsbook’s vig which is baked into the closing odds. The vig is the sportsbook’s margin and to put it simply it reduces the bet’s payout.
If you compare the odds you bet to the vig-included closing odds, you’re not comparing your bet to a fair reflection of the market’s final opinion - you're comparing it to a padded number. This can lead to misleading CLV results, where a bet might appear to have no edge (or even negative edge) when in fact it did beat the true market consensus.
If you pick the right bet tracking tool then you won’t need to worry about de-vigging or calculating CLV because the software will do that all for you.
How to Track Closing Line Value
Most good bet tracking tools will track CLV for you saving you time so you can focus on finding more profitable bets.
Best Bet Trackers for CLV Tracking
- Pikkit
- Unabated
- OddsJam
- RebelBetting
FAQ
What is closing line value in sports betting?
Closing Line Value (CLV) is a way to measure whether you consistently get better odds than the market’s final price — known as the closing line. The closing line is considered the most accurate estimate of true probabilities, especially at sharp sportsbooks like Pinnacle. If your bets are placed at better odds than where the line closes, you’re said to have positive CLV, which is a strong sign you’re making +EV (positive expected value) bets.
How to calculate closing line value?
The most common formula for CLV is:
CLV % = (Closing Odds / Bet Odds) - 1
Expressed as a percentage, it shows how much better or worse your odds are compared to the closing line.
Which closing line should I use?
Not all closing lines are equal. You want to use the sharpest, most efficient closing line available — the one that best reflects true probabilities. On average, that’s the closing line from Pinnacle Sportsbook, which is known for its high betting limits, low margins, and willingness to accept sharp action. Because of this, Pinnacle’s closing odds are widely accepted by professionals as the benchmark for measuring CLV.
What is good closing line value?
There’s no single threshold, but in general:
- A positive CLV (even as little as 1–2%) is a good sign — it means you’re beating the market.
- A CLV of +5% or higher is excellent and suggests a strong long-term edge.
- Consistently negative CLV indicates that you're likely overpaying relative to the true odds and may be betting at a disadvantage.
More important than any single bet is the overall trend across many bets. If your average CLV is consistently positive over time, you likely have a winning strategy — even if short-term results are volatile.
Written by
Co-founder of Pinnacle Odds Dropper and Editor of The Steam Report - a popular monthly advantage betting newsletter