Quick summary
This article explains what contrarian betting is, how it works, and why going against the public can be a profitable strategy. We’ll cover examples of contrarian bets, explore the psychology behind public bias, and share tips for using this approach effectively. For more insights like this, visit our blog, The Advantage.
Ever felt like the crowd can be wrong?
In sports betting, the majority of casual bettors tend to flock toward favourites, popular teams, or overs. A contrarian bet takes the opposite approach: betting against the public opinion.
It might feel uncomfortable at first, but contrarian betting is based on the idea that public money often pushes lines in the wrong direction, creating value on the other side.
In this article, we’re going to explain exactly what a contrarian bet is, how it works, and why going against the public can be a profitable approach.
What is a contrarian bet?
A contrarian bet is a wager placed against the majority of public betting. Instead of following the direction most people are putting their money, contrarian bettors deliberately go the other way, looking for value created by line movement and market bias.
Examples include:
- Betting on an unfashionable underdog when everyone else is backing the favourite.
- Taking the under in a game where the public overwhelmingly bets the over.
- Backing a team that has looked poor recently but is undervalued by the odds.
How does contrarian betting work?
- Public piles onto one side: The majority of bettors place their wagers on Team A, with 80% of the money going toward the favorite. This creates a heavy bias toward one side.
- Sportbooks adjust odds: In response, the sportbook adjusts the odds to balance the risk, making the underdog, Team B, more appealing by improving their odds.
- Contrarian bettor steps in: A contrarian bettor spots the inflated odds on Team B and decides to back the underdog, taking advantage of the value created by public bias.
- Outcome: If Team B covers the spread or wins, the contrarian bettors profit while the majority, who backed Team A, lose their bet. By betting against the crowd, contrarian bettors capitalize on the mispriced odds.
Example of a contrarian bet
NFL Football
- Public betting: 85% of wagers on the Dallas Cowboys (favourites).
- Line moves from −6.5 to −8 because of heavy Cowboys money.
- Contrarian bettors take the New York Giants at +8.
- Game ends: Cowboys win 24–20.
- Cowboys win, but Giants cover the spread. Public loses, contrarians win.
Pros
- Value on underdogs: Underdogs often have better odds than they should, offering valuable betting opportunities.
- Fades public bias: Contrarian betting avoids hype, focusing on value rather than popular picks.
- Long-term edge: The market frequently overvalues favorites, creating repeat opportunities for contrarian bettors.
- Works best in big games: High-profile events have stronger public bias, making contrarian bets more profitable.
Cons
- Uncomfortable picks: Betting against the crowd often means backing unpopular teams.
- Losing streaks: Contrarian betting requires patience, as public favorites often win.
- Harder research: Tracking betting percentages and line movements takes time and effort.
- Not guaranteed: Fading the public doesn't always lead to wins, as the market can still be right.
Contrarian vs consensus betting
Approach | What it means | Mindset | Risk | Reward |
Consensus | Follow where most bets go | Comfort with the crowd | Lower | Often poor value |
Contrarian | Bet against public money | Think independently | Higher | Better long-term value |
Why professional bettors favor contrarian bets
- Public bias: Fans often favor popular teams and star players, skewing the market. Contrarian bettors find value where the public overestimates odds.
- Inflated lines: Heavy betting on one side forces bookmakers to adjust odds, inflating lines for underdogs. Contrarians capitalize on these mispriced odds.
- Bookmaker margins: Sportsbooks adjust lines toward popular teams, creating mispriced odds. Contrarians exploit this by backing less popular, higher-value sides.
- Market inefficiency: In big games, emotion drives betting, often overvaluing favorites. Contrarians take advantage of these market inefficiencies to find value on the other side.
Conclusion
A contrarian bet is all about going against the public and finding value where most bettors don’t look. While it feels uncomfortable, it’s a proven long-term approach for sharp bettors who understand market psychology.
By tracking public money, targeting big games, and staying disciplined, contrarian betting can give you an edge where casual bettors fall into traps.
Frequently asked questions
Is contrarian betting profitable?
Yes, if done correctly. Contrarian betting profits by exploiting inflated odds caused by public bias, leading to long-term value.
Which sports work best for contrarian betting?
Contrarian betting is most effective in high-profile sports like the NFL, NBA, and major leagues, where public bias is strongest.
Is contrarian betting the same as fading the public?
Yes, contrarian betting and fading the public are the same. Both involve betting against the majority to find value.
Do contrarian bets always mean backing the underdog?
Not always. While underdogs are often undervalued, contrarian betting can also involve taking totals (like the under) or even a favorite if the public is heavily backing the other side.
Is contrarian betting risky for beginners?
Yes, because it requires patience and discipline. Contrarian picks often look uncomfortable, and beginners may find it hard to stick with the strategy during losing streaks.