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Implied Odds
Quick Summary
Implied odds convert betting odds into a percentage chance of an event occurring. This article explains what they are, how to calculate them in different formats, and how to use them to identify mispriced bets.
What Are Implied Odds?
Implied odds are the market’s estimate of how likely an outcome is, expressed as a percentage. They show what the odds suggest about the probability of a result happening.
For example:
- Decimal odds of 2.50 = 40% implied probability
- American odds of -200 = 66.7% implied probability
Once you know the implied odds, you can compare them to your own estimate of the true chance of the outcome. If your estimate is higher than the implied odds, there may be value in the bet.
How to Calculate Implied Odds
Using Decimal Odds
Formula:
Implied probability (%) = (1 ÷ decimal odds) × 100
Examples:
- 2.00 → (1 ÷ 2.00) × 100 = 50%
- 3.00 → (1 ÷ 3.00) × 100 = 33.3%
- 1.50 → (1 ÷ 1.50) × 100 = 66.7%
Using American Odds
For positive odds (e.g. +150):
Formula:
Implied probability (%) = 100 ÷ (odds + 100)
Example:
+150 → 100 ÷ (150 + 100) = 100 ÷ 250 = 40%
For negative odds (e.g. -200):
Formula:
Implied probability (%) = odds ÷ (odds + 100)
Example:
-200 → 200 ÷ (200 + 100) = 200 ÷ 300 = 66.7%
Quick Reference Table
- +150 = 40%
- 110 = 52.4%
- 2.00 = 50%
- 3.00 = 33.3%
Implied Odds vs Actual Probability
- Implied odds reflect what the market believes
- Actual probability is your own estimate, based on data, modeling, or research
If your estimate is higher than the implied odds, the bet may offer value.
Example:
- Market odds: +250 → Implied probability = 28.6%
- Your model: 35% chance
- Difference = Potential value opportunity
Example: Finding Value
- Team A priced at +220
- Implied probability = 100 ÷ (220 + 100) = 100 ÷ 320 = 31.25%
- Your estimate = 40% chance
- If your estimate is accurate, this bet has positive expected value
Common Mistakes with Implied Odds
- Comparing raw odds to probability without converting
- Confusing implied odds with expected value (EV)
- Ignoring bookmaker margin (vig)
- Relying on a single sportsbook’s price
- Assuming the market is always correct
Clarifying the Role of Vig (Overround)
Sportsbooks build margin into their odds. When you add up the implied probabilities for all possible outcomes in a market, the total will often exceed 100%. The difference is called the overround, and it represents the bookmaker’s edge.
FAQs
What’s the difference between implied odds and betting odds?
Betting odds show payout potential. Implied odds convert that into a percentage chance of winning.
Are implied odds accurate?
They represent the market’s pricing, not necessarily reality. They can be distorted by public money or bias.
Can you use implied odds in live betting?
Yes. You can calculate implied probability at any time using current odds.
How does this relate to expected value?
Implied odds help you calculate expected value by comparing the market’s belief to your own.
What is overround?
Overround is the total of all implied probabilities in a market. If it adds up to more than 100%, that’s the bookmaker’s margin.
Learn More
To understand how implied odds relate to value betting and how to compare prices across sharp and soft sportsbooks, visit The Advantage—your trusted source for sports betting education built around math, not hype.