Table of Contents
- Bookie Trader by Day, Bookie Beater by Night
- Path to Value Betting with Dropping Odds
- Configurations that Brought Success
- The alert configurations that Adam currently uses to beat the bookies…
- Bet365 is the Best
- Optimising Turnover
- Avoiding Account Limitations
- Betting into Low limit Markets
- Dealing with Variance
- Closing Advice to Dropping Odds Bettors
- Summary
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Bookie Trader by Day, Bookie Beater by Night
From 9 am to 5 pm Monday to Friday, Adam bets on behalf of the bookies as a whitelabel sportsbook trader but outside of those hours he uses his industry knowledge and the dropping odds strategy to bet against any soft bookie that will take his action.
This means we have an ally behind enemy lines and Adam (whose name has been changed to protect his identity) very kindly agreed to sit down with me to talk all things dropping odds. This article was born out of our in-depth conversation;
Path to Value Betting with Dropping Odds
While studying at university in 2017 Adam started matched betting to pay for rent. After his free bets and promotions were all used up he moved over to value betting and quickly found he had a “knack for finding mis-pricings in the market”.
After six and half years of value betting his experience beating the bookies ended up landing him a job with one of the biggest whitelabel sportsbooks in the world. From this position, he has been able to gather valuable insights into the way that sportsbooks set odds and manage risks.
In November 2023 James resumed his value betting journey, leveraging the insights he was gaining from his day job. “A lot of the industry use Pinnacle as a benchmark because Pinnacle are moving their prices based on sharp business so they are always going to be sharper compared to other books”. Having a keen understanding of this benchmarking dynamic allowed him to quickly understand the legitimacy of the dropping odds strategy when he first heard about it. (Learn more about the dropping odds strategy).
Since re-starting he has had incredible results using the dropping odds strategy which involves catching slow-moving soft bookmakers before they have adjusted their price to a change in the market and using Pinnacle's price as a benchmark. Adam has turned over £351,237 ($444,00) on UK bookies over the past four months with an impressive yield of 10%. He’s chalked up £35,200 ($44,000) in pure profit which comes out to £8,800 ($11,100) per month!
4 Months
£351,237 Staked
£35,204 Profit
2,812 Bets
10% Yield
^ Adam’s results since returning to value betting with the dropping odds strategy
Configurations that Brought Success
“I bet on any sport really but I’ve had the most success with soccer, basketball and tennis”
The alert configurations that Adam currently uses to beat the bookies…
As you can see, Adam has configurations set for almost every sport but most of his bets are in soccer, basketball and tennis markets. This isn't deliberate he says he will "bet on any sport as long as the value is there it just so happens there's a lot more value in soccer, basketball and tennis markets compared to something like MMA"
Bet365 is the Best
“Bet365’s margin tends to be slimmer so when you get a big drop they tend to be offering the best odds among softs”
Bet365 is famous among sharp bettors for being extremely exploitable. As Adam mentioned in our chat their odds are very competitive and they are relatively slow to limit.
He also mentioned the importance of "having as many bookmaker accounts as possible" so that you're still in the game after account limitations.
Optimising Turnover
“Turnover really comes down to how much time you are willing to put into it, you could spend eight hours on Saturday at your computer or one hour. If you spend eight hours you’ll obviously place more bets and I don’t think any of that time will be wasted … you also naturally start to pick up on when are the right times to bet as you get more experienced”
…
“I’d also recommend switching to a more aggressive staking strategy like Kelly if you are comfortable with bigger drawdowns … in short don’t be scared to stake big when the value is big”
Avoiding Account Limitations
“Working in the industry helps, the main thing is making sure to think about how a trader on the other end would see the bets … if you’re taking five different lines on the same event within a minute for example that looks pretty suspicious”
He goes on to say that even with his insider knowledge he still “can’t avoid limitations forever but doing things like not making unnecessary withdrawals and using the casino every now and then do work to extend the life of accounts”.
Betting into Low limit Markets
“I bet most markets but I do stay away from any markets with limits below 3 figures so for example I wouldn’t bet a market with a limit of $25”
“The less liquid markets tend to have the bigger drops anyway so I often find the biggest price discrepancies in them”
Adam spends a lot of his time betting on more obscure, less liquid markets as he finds the most value in these markets. Like many sharp bettors, he applies a margin of safety that is proportional to the estimated efficiency of the market, which protects him from negative EV bets. He goes on to say that because the "drops are bigger in less efficient markets" he doesn't have to do much work to apply the principle because the necessary discrepancy is usually already there. You can find out more about betting into low-limit markets and the margin of safety principle here.
Dealing with Variance
“I don’t worry about variance too much- the only thing I do is I won’t bet on odds that are
above 6 (+500),. Most of my bets hover around 2.5 to 3.00 (+150 to +300)”
Adam admitted to me that variance can be tough but he said he's a big advocate of sticking to the maths and allowing it to work itself out in the long run so he's always been able to remain disciplined during inevitable downturns.
“I have the bankroll to absorb variance and I know that I’m always going to be cautious enough to stay in the game and that is all that matters”
Closing Advice to Dropping Odds Bettors
With the chat coming to an end Adam left us with some closing advice and in my opinion he struck on the single most important idea when it comes to sports betting; "trust the numbers and not your emotions"
“The main thing is to trust the numbers and not your emotions. Even if you think you know something about a match Pinnacle are almost always going to know more than you so stay disciplined”
“If you consistently beat Pinnacle’s no vig price then you will do well it’s as simple as that”
Summary
- Adam works as a trader for bookies from 9am to 5pm on weekdays, but outside those hours he bets against bookies using the dropping odds strategy.
- He started value betting while in university in 2017 and eventually got a job with a major sportsbook, giving him insider knowledge.
- In November 2023, he resumed value betting using the dropping odds strategy, taking advantage of soft bookies being slow to adjust to Pinnacle's sharper odds.
- In 4 months using dropping odds, he has staked £351,237, won £35,204 in profit (10% yield), over 2,812 bets.
- He primarily bets on soccer, basketball, and tennis as he finds the most value in those sports.
- Bet365 is one of the best bookies to target with its competitive odds and slower adjustment.
- He recommends having many bookie accounts, spending more time to increase turnover, and using an aggressive staking plan like Kelly criterion.
- To avoid limitations, he spaces out bets, avoids red flags like rapidly taking multiple lines, and uses casino play.
- He avoids markets with low limits under 3 figures but finds bigger price discrepancies in less liquid markets.
- He caps his odds at around 6.0 to manage variance but has the bankroll to ride it out.
- His key advice is to "trust the numbers and not emotions" and consistently beat Pinnacle's no-vig prices.
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