Value betting is the key to long-term success in sports betting. This guide explains what a value bet is, how to calculate expected value, and why consistently betting with an edge leads to profit. With clear examples and simple math, you’ll understand how to bet smarter.
The Dropping Odds Strategy is a top-down sports value betting approach that involves monitoring the odds of a sharp sportsbook in order to find value bets on soft sportsbooks which are slower to adjust to new information that has entered the market.
NVP stands for No Vig Price. This is the price that you need to beat in order for your bet to have a positive expected value. The NVP that you see in the dropping odds alerts is Pinnacle’s price after the odds have dropped (-153 in the example below) with the vig subtracted.
POD’s dropping odds alerts are customizable via filters. Beginner configs for sports like soccer, basketball, tennis, and baseball are provided to get started. Most alerts (≈80%) won’t be useful—but that’s expected. The key is filtering effectively to spot real value.
Most POD dropping odds alerts won’t lead to a value bet, which is normal. Beginners can expect to place one bet for every five alerts. With experience and knowledge of ‘prime times’ and ‘fruitful markets,’ you can improve significantly.
There’s no single “perfect” config—your ideal setup depends on volatility tolerance, bookmaker coverage, and turnover goals. Use trial & error: test configs, refine filters and balance quality vs quantity until it fits your strategy.
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