Table of Contents
- What is a Value Bet?
- How Does the Dropping Odds Strategy Work?
- What is a Dropping Odds Alert?
- How to Find Your First Value Bet Using Dropping Odds Alerts
- Step 1: Set up a dropping odds Alert Configuration
- Step 2: Wait for your first dropping odds alert
- Step 3: Place the bet at the soft bookmaker!
- Only Place the Bet if the Odds have not Adjusted
- Expected Value (EV)
- Statistical Significance
- Summary
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What is a Value Bet?
A value bet is a mathematically profitable bet. When a bookmaker prices their odds too generously sharp bettors can place a bet on those odds and expect to make a profit in the long run if they can keep on finding these kinds of bets.
How Does the Dropping Odds Strategy Work?
Pinnacle is one of the fastest and sharpest bookmakers in the world.
Most bookmakers like bet365 for example, copy Pinnacle’s odds but on a delay. If Pinnacle’s odds drop, signalling that the old price was paying out too much, then every other bookmaker will drop their own odds. The key is that the soft bookmakers often don’t drop their own odds very quickly giving us an opportunity to place a bet at the old odds that are paying out too much.
What is a Dropping Odds Alert?
In order to be successful with the dropping odds strategy we need to receive real-time alerts that tell us that Pinnacle have dropped their odds for a specific line so that we can act quickly to exploit the slow moving soft bookmakers. POD provides those real-time configurable dropping odds alerts so our users are the first to know about a drop in one of Pinnacle’s thousands of prices.
How to Find Your First Value Bet Using Dropping Odds Alerts
Step 1: Set up a dropping odds Alert Configuration
Step 2: Wait for your first dropping odds alert
Step 3: Place the bet at the soft bookmaker!
Only Place the Bet if the Odds have not Adjusted
You should only place the bet if the odds have not yet dropped at the soft bookmaker and if the odds they are offering are higher than Pinnacle’s no vig price which is included with every alert.
In the bet above Pinnacle’s no vig price was +164 (2.64) and the odds being offered at Bet365 were +200 (3.00) so it was clear that Bet365 had not reacted to the price drop yet and the odds being offered were significantly higher than Pinnacle’s no vig price so I placed the bet.
Expected Value (EV)
EV = (probability of winning x potential profit) - (probability of losing x stake)
Smarkets define expected value as ‘the measure of what a bettor can expect to win or lose per bet placed on the same odds time and time again.’
The bet above had a positive expected value of 13.6%. This is how I calculated that:
EV = (0.379 x 5.00) - (0.621 x 2.50) = £0.34
For every £2.50 stake my expected value is £0.34. In other words my ‘profit margin’ is 13.6%.
Statistical Significance
Money is made over many thousands of bets not just the first 100 or 200.
Value bettors reach statistical significance at around 2000 bets meaning to be sure that a strategy is successful or not you need to stick at it for at the very least a couple of months.
Summary
- Value Bet: A mathematically profitable bet where bookmakers offer generous odds, allowing for long-term profit.
- Dropping Odds Strategy: Utilize Pinnacle's sharp odds, exploiting slow adjustments by other bookmakers to capitalize on profit opportunities.
- Dropping Odds Alert: Receive real-time alerts of Pinnacle's odds drops, enabling quick action to take advantage of soft bookmakers.
- Finding Value Bet: Set up alert configuration, wait for notifications, and place bets if odds haven't adjusted.
- Expected Value (EV): Calculate potential profit using the formula (Probability of winning x Potential profit) - (Probability of losing x Stake), with a positive EV indicating profit potential.
- Statistical Significance: Assess profitability over many bets (around 2000), sticking with the strategy for a couple of months to confirm success.
