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Dropping Odds Alert Configurations
Specialising your dropping odds alerts to your personal preferences is vital. POD enables you to do this through alert configurations which send alerts based on the filters that you set.
There are three types of alert configuration; dropping odds, limit change, and opening line. In this article, I will be focusing on the dropping odds configuration type which is by far our most popular and of course where we get our name from.
No ‘Perfect’ Configuration
The perfect configuration for myself might look very different to the perfect configuration for somebody else so you need to think about your own situation when setting them. Your volatility tolerance, bookmaker availability and turnover ambitions are just a few of the factors that will dictate how you set your configurations.
Trial and Error
Trial and error is the best way to figure out what the best configurations for yourself are. Whether you are just starting out or a seasoned veteran I strongly recommend that you frequently test out new configurations.
Set up a configuration, figure out what you like about it (perhaps you are catching really big drops) and then figure out what you don’t like about it (perhaps you aren’t receiving enough alerts to keep your turnover high) then make the necessary adjustments. Keep on repeating this process until you have the configuration set just how you need it to be.
Example Configuration
How to set up a Dropping Odds Alert Configuration
Dropping Odds Alert Filters
Depending on how you set a configuration’s filters it might send many alerts or few alerts, large drops or small drops, alerts for efficient markets or inefficient markets so you must understand how the different filters will affect alerting and how to set them to make sure you are receiving alerts that are actionable for you.
In this section, I am going to talk you through how the filters work, important things you need to know when setting them and what you need to think about when setting each filter. Remember there is no ‘perfect’ way to set the filters, as I said earlier your needs are different to mine. That being said I do think some general pointers can be useful so let’s get stuck in.
Competitions (Filter)
❗️The competitions filter needs to be set with care so read the rules below very carefully before setting.
Rules (Important!):
- To filter competitions, use this textbox. Leave it blank to include all competitions.
- This filter is not case-sensitive (e.g. "Italy" and "ItAlY"are treated the same).
- Separate competitions using commas (e.g. "Premier League, Champions League").
- The filter matches competition names containing the text you specify. For instance, if you set it to "premier" it will match competitions like "England - Premier League" and "Northern Ireland - Premiership."
- You can be as specific or general as you like. For example, "a, b" will match all competitions with either an "a" or a "b" in their name.
- If you toggle on include mode then any competitions that you input will be alerted for. If you toggle on exclude mode then any competitions that you input will not be alerted for. You cannot have include and exclude working at the same time.
Bookmaker coverage
When I set my competition filter I'm trying to isolate drops in markets that will be available at my soft bookmakers. If I know that none of my soft bookmakers publish markets for ‘Japan - Regional League’, which is a soccer league in Japan, then I don’t want to receive alerts for drops in those markets so I would first toggle on exclude mode and then type in ‘Japan - Regional League’ and voila I will no longer receive those useless alerts.
Include or Exclude?
If I only want to receive alerts for two or three competitions then the quickest thing for me to do would be to type the competition names into the include box.
If I want to stop getting alerted about competitions that I don’t have at my soft bookmakers then I will periodically exclude them. As a new alert comes in for a competition that I discover is not available at my local soft bookmaker I will at that point exclude the competition. Be careful though, your soft bookmaker might offer markets for the competition but not for the specific game so make sure to check that first by looking at the bookmaker’s list of offered competitions.
Minimum Drop Percentage (Filter)
Inefficient Markets = Big Min drop %
If I am being alerted about a low limit and high vig market (Limits and Vig what are they and why are they Important?) then the drop needs to be big because I want a large margin of safety when placing a bet at my soft bookmaker to compensate for the inefficiency of Pinnacle’s pricing.
I need the price difference between Pinnacle and the soft bookmaker to be larger than if I was betting into a high limit and low vig market. The way you find bigger discrepancies is by catching larger drops so if your strategy includes betting into inefficient markets then you want to consider a relatively high minimum drop %, perhaps 10% would be a good starting point.
Quality vs Quantity
The higher the minimum drop %, the fewer alerts you will receive. Striking the balance between quality and quantity is the aim of the game when it comes to configuring your alerts so I recommend trying out different minimum drip percentages until you hit the sweet spot.
If your turnover is low and you want to increase it then you can consider dropping your minimum drop percentage but do this with caution. You never want to get to the point where you are placing negative EV bets because you are chasing a high turnover.
Time Interval (Filter)
How does it work?
The time interval is the period across which the software scans for market drops to alert you about.
For example, if you set it to three minutes then every time there is an odds change on Pinnacle the software will compare the new odds to the odds from three minutes ago to see if the change has created a drop that matches your other filters.
Catching Sudden or Systemic Drops
Do you want to catch drops that occur over a short period, a long period or somewhere in between? That is the question you need to ask yourself when setting the time interval filter.
Generally speaking, we are trying to place a bet on a slow-moving bookmaker which hasn’t reacted to a new piece of information that has entered the market (i.e. a key player is left off the team sheet). A new piece of information can cause a sharp drop that creates great value opportunities for us so setting your time interval to just a couple of minutes is a great way to catch these drops.
If you want to be alerted about more consistent drops then increase your time interval. Long-drawn-out drops can also create value opportunities if a soft bookmaker has poor quality automation or traders who are consistently behind the market.
Max Time to Match Start (Filter)
Market Efficiency
When Pinnacle opens a new market it is, relatively speaking, quite inefficient. This is because there is lots of uncertainty. As the match approaches information like confirmed lineups and the weather become available so uncertainty decreases which means Pinnacle can price the market more effectively. On top of the ‘fundamental’ information, Pinnacle also will get pricing guidance from the flow of money, specifically sharp money throughout the life of the market. So as sharp money flows into one side of the market Pinnacle will drop the odds in response. These adjustments bring the market closer to perfect efficiency over time.
So what does this mean? It means if you want to receive alerts for more efficient markets then set the max time to match start filter so that you only receive alerts for matches close to starting.
In my article on market efficiency (Pinnacle’s Odds Keep Bouncing Back After I Place a Bet, What Do I Do?) I explain that you can and should still bet on less efficient markets using the margin of safety principle so there isn’t necessarily a need to limit your alerts to within a short time before the match starts. The margin of safety principle demands that you only take a bet on a market if the premium to Pinnacle’s NVP is proportional to the market efficiency which can be estimated by analysing the limit and vig in conjunction. This is a whole topic in itself so I do recommend you read the article I referenced above as it will help you greatly when it comes to setting this filter.
One important thing to be aware of if you decide to start betting closer to the start of the match is that some bookmakers will take the markets offline within 5-10 minutes of kickoff so you may well find fewer opportunities if you focus on bets too close to kickoff.
Turnover
Let’s imagine that we place two almost identical bets with an expected value of 5%. One of the bets is for a match that starts in three days and the other is for a match that starts in two hours.
If we could only place one of the bets then of course we would place the one on the game that starts in two hours because we are going to lock our capital up for a far shorter amount of time. Once this bet has settled we can place another bet at 5% EV whereas with the first bet we have to wait three days for our bet to settle before we can re-deploy that capital. I might be able to place nine or ten bets in the three days that it takes for the second bet to settle!
Higher turnover can mean better overall ROI (return on investment) even if the average yield of your bets is less. So for this reason I tend to keep my max time to match start filter close to match start.
Odds Range (Filter)
Variance
The longer (higher) your odds the more likely you are to string together a series of losses. These losses can take you beneath your expected profit for a considerable amount of time. This is called negative variance and it’s the most emotionally challenging thing that any value bettor goes through.
One way to reduce negative variance is to only bet on relatively short odds so that you don’t string together lots of losses. This won’t have any impact on how much money you make in the long term, in fact, if you end up not placing bets on high-value opportunities because the odds are too long then you might be leaving money on the table but for many people, it’s worth it as big downswings can be hard to endure and they can cause bettors to start to act irrationally.
Limit Range ($) (Filter)
Market Efficiency Again…
Pinnacle will progressively accept more and more money in bets as they get more and more confident that their price is right. The amount of money Pinnacle will accept in bets from any one bettor at a particular price is called the ‘limit’. Therefore we can get a good sense of Pinnacle’s confidence in a price based on their limit.
So we come to same question of whether we should be betting into low limit markets. I argued earlier that yes we should, as long as we apply the margin of safety principle with discipline so I won’t go over that argument again but I will say this; If you constrain yourself to high limit markets then your turnover will be massively inhibited for two reasons, 1) you’ll receive fewer alerts and 2) the soft bookmakers adjust to high limit market drops quicker as they often have higher limits themselves so need to be more price sensitive.
Summary
- There is no "perfect" configuration - settings depend on your personal preferences, risk tolerance, bookmaker availability, and turnover goals.
- Use trial and error to find the optimal configuration by frequently testing new settings and adjusting filters based on what you like/dislike about the alerts received.
- Filters to pay close attention to:
- Competitions: Carefully include/exclude to get alerts for markets offered at your bookmakers.
- Minimum Drop %: Higher % = fewer but higher-quality alerts. Find the right balance.
- Time Interval: Short intervals catch sudden drops, longer intervals for systemic drops.
- Max Time to Match Start: Closer to start = more efficient markets but fewer bookmaker options.
- Odds Range: Shorter odds reduce variance/downswing risk.
- Limit Range: Higher limits suggest more efficient Pinnacle pricing.
- Consider applying a "margin of safety" principle when betting on less efficient markets.
- Monitor turnover - placing more bets at slightly lower EV can improve overall ROI in some cases.
- Continuously re-evaluate and fine-tune your configurations for optimal results aligned with your strategy.
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