Limit Change Alerts: How to Value Bet Using Them

Limit Change Alerts: How to Value Bet Using Them
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What is a Limit Change Alert?

Limit Change alerts notify you whenever Pinnacle adjusts the maximum stake they'll accept for a particular betting market. You get alerted when the limits move up or down by a percentage you specify in your filter settings.

How Can I Use Limit Change Alerts?

1. Gauge Market Efficiency

  • A significant limit increase suggests more money is coming in from sharper bettors
  • Higher limits signal the market is getting more efficient as Pinnacle grows more confident in the price

Opportunities

  • Provides insight into which markets are attracting the most action from sharp players
  • Can help decide if there's value tailing or fading the line move

Challenges

  • Doesn't tell you which side sharp money is on, just that big money is being bet
  • Limit increases alone don't guarantee a profitable betting opportunity
 

2. Spot Pricing Uncertainty

  • A large limit decrease could indicate Pinnacle is uncertain about the current price
  • May provide a contrarian betting opportunity if you have a strong opposing view

Opportunities

  • Quickly identify markets where Pinnacle's confidence is wavering
  • Potential to capitalize on their uncertainty if you have solid contradictory information

Challenges

  • Pinnacle limit decreases are relatively rare and can be very short-lived
  • Need fast access to other information to determine if a contrarian play is +EV

Configurable Filters ⚙️

Customize settings to get alerts for most relevant limit changes by creating alert configurations using these configurable filters;
  • Sport
  • Market
  • Competition
  • Period
  • Change Direction (up/down)
  • Min Change %
  • Time Interval
  • Max Time to Start
  • Odds Range
  • Limit Range
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Effective Use

  • Learn what qualifies as a notably large limit change for different sports/markets
  • Cross-reference with other key factors like odds movement, market signals, your projections
  • Use limit changes to identify spots for deeper analysis, not as automatic betting triggers

Summary

  • Limit Change alerts notify you when Pinnacle adjusts the max stake they'll take on a market, by a percentage you set.
  • Significant limit increases indicate more sharp money coming in, suggesting the price is getting more efficient. This can help gauge if tailing or fading has value.
  • Large limit decreases may signal Pinnacle's pricing uncertainty and a potential contrarian betting opportunity if you have an opposing view. But decreases are rarer and you need to act fast.
  • Configure alerts by sport, competition, change direction, min change %, time interval, max time to start, odds and limit range for the most relevant notifications.
  • Use limit changes to spot markets for deeper research, not as automatic bets. Learn what change sizes are actually notable and combine with other key information.
 
 

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