Opening Line Alerts: How to Value Bet Using Them

Opening Line Alerts: How to Value Bet Using Them
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What is an Opening Line Alert?

Opening Line alerts notify you whenever Pinnacle first opens a new betting line for an upcoming event. You get alerted with Pinnacle's opening odds as soon as they become available.

How Can I Use Opening Line Alerts?

1. Bet against softs (Easy Mode)

  • Get notified as soon as Pinnacle opens a new market
  • Compare their vig free opening odds against soft books’ odds.

Opportunities

  • In many countries there are lots of soft bookmakers to bet on so this strategy can be sustainable depending on the country
  • Using Pinnacle’s no vig-price as an efficient benchmark is simpler than developing a complex predictive model that likely is under resourced vs Pinnacle’s models that come up with the opening prices

Challenges

  • Not all softs will open lines before Pinnacle
  • Pinnacle are least efficient at the opening line and get progressively more efficient as the market develops so there might not always be enough of a margin of safety to baked into the soft bookmaker’s price to feel confident that there is real positive value

2. Bet against Pinnacle (Hard Mode)

  • Analyze if Pinnacle's opening line seems mispriced based on your projections that you make using a predictive model
  • If you identify a misprice, you can take the odds immediately

Opportunities

  • Pinnacle do not limit winning players so if you have a strategy that beats them then the strategy is likely more sustainable than betting against softs

Challenges

  • Creating a predictive model that is superior to Pinnacle’s models that come up with the opening lines is an extremely hard task especially considering most syndicates/individuals do not have the same resources as Pinnacle

Configurable Filters ⚙️

Narrow down your alerts so that you only get alerted for markets that are of interest to you by creating ‘alert configurations’ using these configurable filters;
  • Sport
  • Markets
  • Competition
  • Max time to start
  • Odds range
  • Limit range
 
(Gold Tier members are allowed 20 different alert configurations at one time)
 
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Summary

  • Opening Line alerts notify you whenever Pinnacle opens a new betting market, providing their opening odds immediately.
  • To bet against soft books, compare their odds to Pinnacle's no-vig opening price and bet if soft books are higher before they adjust. Many soft books exist in some countries, and Pinnacle's price is an efficient benchmark, but not all softs open lines first and Pinnacle's opening lines are their least efficient.
  • To bet against Pinnacle, analyze if their opening line seems mispriced based on your own projections/models. Pinnacle doesn't limit winners so this can be sustainable, but it's extremely challenging to outperform their opening line models.
  • Configure alerts by sport, market, competition, max time to start, odds range and limit range to focus on opportunities of interest.
 
 

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